How do Citadel have a crystal ball for price?

High-frequency trading, which lets them frontrun orders.

How do you fontrun orders? You can only take action after you see the order. Am I missing anything?

latency arbitrage is a thing

Michael Lewis wrote a book called Flashboys all about it. If your network speed and processing power are faster than the competitors, then you can move faster than them on any trade. Really interesting stuff

Flash Boys is essentially fiction. You might also enjoy "Flash Boys: Not So Fast," which attempts to debunk it.

Let's imagine a bustling farmer's market where market makers are savvy fruit stand owners, and regular traders are shoppers. Here's how the market makers might "front run" orders to make arbitrage profits:

## The Fruit Stand Scenario

Imagine you're at a large farmer's market with numerous fruit stands. You're looking to buy a crate of apples, and you ask a friendly fruit stand owner, Citadel, for the price.

*The Setup:* - You want to buy a crate of apples - Citadel’s stand is selling apples for $50 per crate - There's another stand nearby selling for $48, but it's not immediately visible

*The Front-Running Process:*

1. *Information Advantage:* Citadel, being a regular at the market, knows about the nearby stand selling apples for $48.

2. *Customer's Intent:* When you ask Citadel for the price, they realizes you're likely to buy a crate.

3. *Quick Action:* Before quoting you a price, Citadel quickly sends his assistant to buy a crate from the $48 stand.

4. *Price Quote:* Citadel then tells you his price is $50 per crate, which you accept.

5. *Fulfillment:* Citadel’s assistant returns with the $48 crate, which Citadel then sells to you for $50.

6. *Profit:* Citadel pockets the $2 difference as profit, without ever risking his own inventory.

## The Market Making Parallel

In the financial markets, this process happens at lightning speed:

1. Market makers see incoming orders before they're fully processed.

2. They quickly buy or sell ahead of large orders on other exchanges.

3. They then fulfill the original order at a slightly worse price.

4. The profit comes from the price difference between exchanges.

This practice, while controversial, is often justified by market makers as providing liquidity and tighter spreads. However, it can be seen as unfair to traders who may not get the best possible price for their orders.

Why would it be legal for market makers to use order info like that?

Nice write up! Can you flesh out your example a little bit with more specifics about how the stock market version works? In particular, are the front-runners actually taking a risk by buying before they have a committed order? Or are they committing to sell before they buy from the cheaper source on the assumption it will still be available? And is selling order flow something different, or the same thing here?

Selling order flow is a related but distinct practice:

- Order Flow Sales: This involves brokers selling information about their customers’ orders to interested parties.

- Potential for Front-Running: While not inherently front-running, selling order flow can enable it if the buyers use this information to trade ahead of customer orders.

- Payment for Order Flow: This practice allows some brokers to offer commission-free trades, as they make money by routing orders to specific market makers.

Front-runners do take on some risk, but it’s typically minimal:

- Speed: Modern front-running often occurs using high-frequency trading algorithms, minimizing the time between the front-runner’s trade and the large order execution.

- Committed Orders: Front-runners act on knowledge of committed orders, not mere possibilities. They have an informational advantage.

Not following this. 1. Aren’t everybody seeing the book at the same time? The exchange do not publish the same data to everybody? 2. The “information advantage example” does not make sense to me. If there is an order for 48$, that is top of book and everyone has seen that order, how come the new participant not know it?

> How do you fontrun orders? You can only take action after you see the order.

PFOF:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Payment_for_order_flow

PFOF does not frontrun — it wouldn't even make sense to frontrun. Retail orders tend to be bad; it makes no sense to frontrun a bad order, especially if you're the market maker who's fulfilling it too.