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A comment on Google says AI weather model masters 15-day forecast. Parent comment

Re:Google says AI weather model masters 15-day forecast by labster on Tuesday December 10, 2024 @07:28PM (#42383314)
Accurate black box is fine until it blows a forecast and people die, and you want to fix it for the next time.

Take the situation with Hurricane Otis — what do you do if an AI doesn’t detect cyclogenesis 24-48 hours beforehand? Are we sure tuning the model to detect this event will improve forecast skill in general, or will it make it worse?

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Re:Google says AI weather model masters 15-day forecast by nradov on Tuesday December 10, 2024 @07:48PM (#42383465)
Weather forecasting models will gradually improve over time but it's unreasonable to expect perfect accuracy. That is mathematically impossible in a chaotic system. Some people will always die in extreme weather events.
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