> whenever somebody says they've achieved it, someone else -- maybe you -- will say they haven't

And as long as that discussion still makes sense it's pretty obvious that we haven't achieved it. There's a very clear inflection point, when anything deserving that label actually exists we'll have 50% economic growth a year, the 50 most popular professions will be done by machines, the cost of science will fall by magnitudes because everyone can spawn a hundred scientists with the click of a mouse, and you'll walk out the door and the world will look to you like the 1950s looked to someone from 1500. We aren't even going to be capable of haggling about arcane theoretical differences.