I wouldn't be comfortable saying we'll never see AGI in our lifetimes. I've seen incredible progress since I was a kiddo and computers were these huge machines that took up an entire desk, not to mention that only a decade prior to that, they were machines that took up entire warehouses. And now, I carry around a computer who's primary function is organizing my life and helping me kill time, and it has hundreds of times more power stuffed into a little rectangle that runs the entire day in my pocket. I wouldn't say it's impossible by any stretch.

That said, I think it strains the hell out of credulity to say a fancy chatbot is getting anywhere close to that, especially since we apparently had to give it every word mankind has written up to this point just to get it to a stage of "mostly good at grammar, still makes tons of shit up." I just don't think this is the route there.