Yeah I think Intel is a dark horse here in that AMD has kind of already stated they're pulling back from the extreme end of performance. If Intel's engineering work improves (and notably their driver staff do a good job) iteratively in short order as they've spoken about, I can see them capturing a good chunk of the GPU space and become the de facto discrete option on laptops.

CUDA is definitely the biggest hurdle as you pointed out though. NVidia's bet there paid off big time.