You can give Claude a complex, novel problem, and it will give you a reasonable solution, which it will be able to explain to you and discuss with you.
You're getting hung up on the fact that LLMs are trained on next-token prediction. I could equally dismiss human intelligence: "The human brain is just a biological neural network that is adapted to maximize the chance of creating successful offspring." Sure, but the way it solves that task is clearly intelligent.
I'm not saying that your observations aren't correct, but this is not a binary. It is entirely possible that the tasks you observe the models on are exactly the kind where they tend to regurgitate. But that doesn't mean that it is all they can do.
Ultimately, the question is whether there is a "there" there at all. Even if 9 times out of 10, the model regurgitates, but that one other time it can actually reason, that means that it is capable of reasoning in principle.
However, in coding tasks I’ve been able to find it directly regurgitating Stack overflow answers (like literally a google search turns up the code).
Giving coding is supposed to be Claude’s strength, and it’s clearly just parroting web data, I’m not seeing any sort of “reasoning”.
LLM may be useful but they don’t think. They’ve already plateaued, and given the absurd energy requirements I think they will prove to be far less impactful than people think.