His first point - weighting by 2020 vote - is something that Nate Cohn pointed out very concretely as a methodological choice that wouldn't be obvious until the election [0]. Even in retrospect that seems fair, at least based on the analysis that Nate put together.

Worth pointing out though that most pollsters _have_ been weighting by 2020 vote, so in general this isn't a fair critique of the entire polling industry. There are other fair critiques though, for example, that there are entire populations of people that are almost impossible to reach now (e.g. those who don't answer unknown numbers, young people, etc.).

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/06/upshot/polling-methods-el...

I feel like this is confirmation bias, especially since it's a very large number of polls from reputable organizations being compared against one person's opinion.

Even if the true probability isn't 50% I doubt it's that far off.