You’re missing the point. Axiomatic systems aim to be internally consistent. The question is whether they are good model of a real life situation. Your technical knowledge is distracting you from the more fundamental questions.

There is no sense in which Harris had a 50% chance and had an unlucky day. The only “chance” going on is how likely the poll sample represents the population. The math behind that assumes you have a genuine sample and ignores realities like preference falsification.

Please think and read charitably before making personal attacks. I generally take that as a sign you are acting in bad faith and I do not want to interact with you. Goodbye.