I kept hearing people laugh at Polymarket. "It's not a real poll!" But it guessed correctly when almost none of the polls did. I think I'll continue to listen to betting markets.

Thing is, prediction markets tend to be gamed by people who bet large amounts of money. I used a (play money) prediction market platform before and there was literally a "markets that get easily gamed by whales" section on the website.

If you're talking about "whalebait" markets on manifold, that's a bit disingenuous - these are markets where the thing you're betting about is related to trading behaviour itself, i.e. self-referential markets.

I don't disagree that the one french dude betting 30M on Trump on polymarket showed that there isn't enough liquidity in such markets for such distortions to be corrected, but whalebait on Manifold is not really related.

For most things, I'd be happy to accept a market's wisdom. But after seeing the meme stock phenomenon, I didn't trust them to fairly judge anything related to Trump.