Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by acdha on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @06:51AM (#42060624)

This is harsh: it’s effectively trolling, but it’s not by the original poster but a calculated political campaign designed to smear Democrats. Saying anyone wants “male perverts [to] share showers and locker rooms with their kids” is untrue, but it’s really effective at getting people to pick a side because it sounds terrible and even though this is not a pressing problem in the real world (if we’re talking child size abuse, the risk is family members and trusted adults) it’s perfect for getting strong emotional reactions, as we can see from how heavily used it is.

Governor Youngkin got elected in Virginia riding on a wave of anti-trans sentiment based off of a single reported assault where the accused wasn’t even trans, didn’t identify as such, wasn’t allowed to be in the bathroom where the assault occurred, etc. but that was such a volatile claim that it was all over the news for the end of the campaign even though it was a single assault out of thousands.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/05/magazine/loudoun-county-b...

I think it’s possible to recognize that a position is not factual and based on emotional impact but we need a better term than trolling to describe it.

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by sethammons on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @07:13AM (#42060950)

agreed; I'm not saying the person is _right_. If the left wanted to get dirty, they should have tossed up all the pedo priest data. At the end of the day, it was absolutely a messaging problem. People very literally believe that their kids could be targeted and become trans. Education and more propaganda are the only options.

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by acdha on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @07:47AM (#42061425)

I think it should have been focused on the economic issues: there was a little of that but it should have been louder on what people experience like the way grocery costs include corporate profit-taking or how the guys deciding to have layoffs or hiking rents were heavily supporting Trump - there are a lot of abstract or targeted issues but almost everyone thinks about their paycheck and how much of it is going to living expenses.

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tekknik on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:35AM (#42062056)

Nope, trans ideology is still unpopular and we all still remember it.

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by acdha on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:54AM (#42062299)

Ideologues care about trans people but it’s not at the top of any large group of voters’ priorities in poll after poll.

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tekknik on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:10AM (#42062535)

You believe polls? The right notoriously is undersampled because they simply don’t take them. If you need more evidence, the polls also put her in the lead.

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by acdha on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:19AM (#42063642)

Polls had it as a tossup similar to what we saw. I believe that when voters repeatedly say they care about the economy and immigration, they probably are saying those because they mean it and not because they’re fixated on trans people but shy.

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tekknik on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:35PM (#42065916)

that’s a toss up? no that’s a commanding victory. if republicans take the house and all else is the same they’ll have won popular, electoral, house and senate. that’s not a toss up

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by acdha on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:52PM (#42066237)

It’s still a tossup: you’re conflating the polls being within the margin of error with the electoral college vote count, but all of the major analysts were saying it was even odds that either of them could win with a range of vote totals. 538 had it at 52:48 favoring Trump yesterday, and the EV range went high because so many states were close.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/538s-final-forecasts-2024-electio...

> But it is worth stressing that the polls will not be exactly correct. Polls overestimated Democrats by an average of 3-4 points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, for example, and overestimated Republicans by an average of 2.5 points in the 2012 presidential election. Our election model expects polls this year to be off by 3.8 points on average, although it could be more or less — and our model thinks this error is equally likely to favor Democrats as Republicans

> And that’s why we’ve been saying the race isn’t necessarily going to be close just because the polls are. Trump and Harris, our model says, are both a normal polling error away from an Electoral College blowout.

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tekknik on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:59PM (#42073247)

come back in two days and explain why you’re wrong. you’ve lost complete. you may get the house, very unlikely at this point, but that’s the only one not confirmed. dems have no recourse here, the attacks didn’t work, the hate speech didn’t work, and now you can’t accept the results.

ready for voter IDs yet?

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by yongjik on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:07PM (#42073289)

That's rich, coming from someone cheering for a guy who didn't accept he lost for four years.

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tekknik on Thursday November 07, 2024 @01:38AM (#42074069)

You still don’t understand voter IDs? you think you’re going to win here?

mark my words, we will have voter IDs before I die, and it will actually solve this problem.

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by acdha on Friday November 08, 2024 @05:18PM (#42090909)

What are you even talking about? Nobody serious is contesting the outcome. I was simply rejecting the false claim that the polls didn’t allow for this result when the last couple weeks were full of people saying this outcome was very possible.

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