"Since...the 2020 election" is also not much of a precedent. That's three elections, only one of which would have been for a Senate candidate (in some states), and presumably at most one gubernatorial one except in states that might have had a special election (unless there are states with 2-year terms that I'm not aware of). Given how many more people vote in presidential election years compared to other years, and presumably fewer still do when there's not a statewide election either, it's hard to feel like there's enough info to infer much about whether this trend will hold this year.