The world is vastly more complex than say the world of 1945, so almost certainly there are now likely several dozens to several hundreds of ‘epicycles’ that are in fact true and necessary for full understanding.
Edit: Now the pentagon doesn’t contain the entire complexity of mankind within it… but it’s probably not that far off.
What bearing does what you mention have on the question on whether things got more or less complicated?
> Also, when expected outcomes don't align with perceived results, it's usually best but not very human to doubt yourself.
Eg this seems like something that would apply equally well at any time?
> Whoever has Shor/Grovers going first, has a advantage equitable to winning the AGI race... That too can win wars.
We have plenty of quantum resistant options, and people are already switching over.
And the story of the Enigma and its encryption shows that cryptographic and its breakage was already important back in the day.
> Nothing is simple and perceived simpleness is on the clock, for everyone.
How is this different now than before, though?
There's probably some small-ish 'dark budget'. But think about it: the official budget is in the order of single digit percentage points of US GDP. That represents and enormous amount of resources. Any appreciable fraction of that in a 'dark budget' would also leave traces all over the place.