>According to Bloomberg, there were 500 Chinese electric car manufacturers in China in 2019. After fierce competition, only 100 manufacturers remained by 2023. According to Wired, as many as 300 manufacturers, both domestic and international, were offering electric vehicles in China in 2023. (wikipedia)
looks more like a capitalist free for all than a few state appointed winners. BYD got a big boost in the early days when it got investment from the US company Berkshire Hathaway, rather than the Chinese govt. Which was because Charlie Munger thought the founder seemed like a new Thomas Edison.
The Chinese government strategy is to fund a massive number of attempts and then suffer a huge number of failures and consistent end up with far too much production capacity leading to a large number of unprofitable companies.
It’s not a terrible strategy if you can dump vehicles elsewhere. It may or may not work if you can’t.
It’s not stupid but it’s probably a bad strategy.
More serious predictions have been made in recent years. And lo and behold we got Evergrande. The news since that has not been great. Some successes, and progress, yes. But also more and more deep fundamental issues brewing under the surface.
Nobody of note has claimed China will collapse over night. This is a process that spans over years if not decades.
The predictions of collapse have had demographics as its primary factor. People don’t go from 40 to 70 overnight. Yet the demographic factors are completely undeniable and its consequences bearing out year by year relentlessly.
And that is on top of a debt to GDP ratio which is utterly insane if you include shadow banking.
“CPC”, eh? Hmmm..
The same way China has been predicted to collapse every year since 1990? No matter how much money you lose, you can grow yourself out of it. Which is why OpenAI can raise $6b at nearly $150b, despite losing $5b annually. So, why do you suggest the CPC will let BYD - their EV golden goose that has thoroughly thrashed Western competitors - to fail?