how useful will a 2024 era model be in 2030?

2040? 2050?

A TI-84 Plus calculator (over 20 years old) is still useful today.

In isolation, I don't think a model necessarily becomes less useful over time. It'll still be as good at summarizing articles, translating text, correcting grammar, etc. for you as it is today.

If things do continue to advance and new models are released, which I think is likely, the old ones become less useful by comparison and in situations where there's competition. But then, through hardware/algorithmic improvements, better models also become feasible for universities/open-source groups/individuals - so you shouldn't be stuck with a 2024 era model.

How useful is it to argue about what would happen in the extraordinarily unlikely eventuality that all LLM development will cease in 2024, wherein everyone with the proclivity to use LLMs will be stuck with exactly these same models for decades to come?