What about second-order effects? If Trump does these tariffs, then other countries are likely to do the same to US exports. If that happens, how much do Americans lose in earning power? Has anyone done that analysis?

That’s just the start of it. There is approximately no significant manufacturing enterprise anywhere in the developed world which does not use at least some foreign imports or equipment. Prices for domestically produced goods would also rise, significantly.

The US would also face retaliatory tariffs.