Re:It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
by QuantumGood on Saturday October 05, 2024 @02:13PM
(#41751770)
His recent statement that AGI may "only be a few thousand days away" is clearly an attempt to find a less quotable way of extending estimates while barely reducing hype. History generally shows that estimates of "more than five years away" are meaningless.
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Re:It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
by CurrentB on Saturday October 05, 2024 @02:58PM
(#41752073)
"a few thousand days away" feels like such a duplicitous way to phrase something when "a few years" would be more natural to everyone on the planet. It just seems intentionally manipulative and not even trying to hide it. I've never been an anti-ceo type person but something about Altman sketches me out
Re:It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
by renegade-otter on Saturday October 05, 2024 @02:38PM
(#41751945)
4000 days is just a few thousand days, but it's [checks notes] over 10 years away.
Re:It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
by QuantumGood on Saturday October 05, 2024 @04:44PM
(#41752745)
He knows as well as anyone about the 5 year hueristic (length too long to be meaningful), so he's trying to say "over 5 years", but still hold onto the sense of "meaningful estimate". My sense about Sam is that he trusts his PR instinct to be usefully manipulative enough that he doesn't think he has to plan it carefully in order for his statements to be maximally opaquely manipulative. (He speaks cleverly and manipulatively without a lot of effort.)