That’s my point – they are not. Your previous comment implied to me a belief that any attempt to draw inference from past events was doomed to failure!

Each circumstance is different. Sometimes the past is a good guide to the future – even for the notoriously unpredictable British weather apparently you can get a seventy percent success rate (by some measure) by predicting that tomorrows weather will be the same as todays. Sometimes it is not - the history of an ideal roulette wheel should offer no insights into future numbers.

The key is of course to act in accordance with the probability, risk and reward.

I did not speak with certainty. Everything I said is guess and opinion.