With 45% probability, assuming he isn't assassinated.

The tie with Musk would make your hypothetical very convenient for Iran as an empty threat though, so there's that.

> Nobody dies

Loads of people die from communication failures.

More importantly, this would only even be a threat if it could actually cause a kessler cascade, because there's too many Starlink satellites to target directly even if you own SpaceX.

This matters because such a cascade will also mess up everything else in close orbits regardless of nationality.

It's like hypothesising someone might use CFCs as a chemical weapon: sure, if they want to make enemies with basically everyone all at the same time.