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Re:Coding Horror: Finishing The Game by barrkel on Thursday January 01, 2009 @12:21PM (#416507)
I don't think you do understand the problem. The thing you're taking issue with - GB vs BG - is the vitally important to the statistics, and is the thing that "normal" people get wrong when they see this kind of problem for the first time.

The only real objection to the problem as it's posed is that it's pretty unlikely that anyone would say that one of their children was a girl when both of their children are girls. For a normal conversation, the ambiguity wouldn't be present; "two children" combined with "one is a girl" means the chances of one boy and one girl are 100%.

It's a bit like the old joke about "which month of the year has 28 days?" - answer being, they all have 28 days, just some have more.

However, in other less contrived situations, this is important. People risk discounting permutations, and only considering combinations, when the permutations are necessary to get a correct view of the odds.

Re:Coding Horror: Finishing The Game by seano on Thursday January 01, 2009 @01:25PM (#416547)
His point is that a person telling you they have one girl would be accepted as referring to a particular child. Thus, BG and GB merge and the odds are 50% of a boy and a girl.
Re:Coding Horror: Finishing The Game by DougBTX on Thursday January 01, 2009 @03:44PM (#416661)
Pedantically, they don't merge, you just rule out GB or BG. So, initial conditions:

    1) X: G, Y: G
    2) X: G, Y: B
    3) X: B, Y: G
    4) X: B, Y: B
If you are told, "at least one is a girl," as in the posted question, you can only rule out case (4). If you are told more specifically that X is a girl, you can rule out (3) and (4), giving the 50-50 chance.

Which still seems a little weird to me, that knowing which is a girl, regardless of which one you know about, changes the chances.

Re:Coding Horror: Finishing The Game by seano on Thursday January 01, 2009 @05:01PM (#416708)
Exactly - the difference is between "at least one is a girl" and pointing out a specific child as a girl.
Re:Coding Horror: Finishing The Game by Niten on Friday January 02, 2009 @01:05AM (#417116)
And this is flat out incorrect.