> Doesn't a solid VPN
Finding a solid one is the hard part. With tor, you kind of know what you are buying. The risks are in the open. With VPN maybe the operator is selling your data to advertizers. Maybe they are keeping logs. You kind of have to just trust them and have no way to verify.
This hypothetical was about "a low value target" looking for "basic anonymity". Just get Mullvad and assume the entire company wasn't a 15 year long con set up to better target ads at you specifically.
Doesn't a solid VPN service also satisfy this exact need? Tor seems to occupy a narrow niche in which you have to care much more about privacy than the average person, but not at a nation state level. I think that is how it got associated with that 2nd tier of internet crime like buying drugs on the dark web or sharing CSAM. The truly sophisticated internet criminals probably know better and the people who only really care about anonymizing themselves are probably doing something simpler.