What happens once a person encounters programming is a different story. I tried, with seemingly mixed success, to portray Jon as someone who is indeed interested in coding - enough to try stuff on his own, and certainly not on a "just to get by" basis - but who did not discover this interest until he picked his major (arbitrarily, perhaps) and actually tried it. Adjusted for age difference, Jon is about as excited about programming as Norman was, but encountered it much later. I think there are many reasons why one would or would not encounter programming at a younger age AND in a manner that excites him (parents, friend circle, alternative entertainment available, neighbourhood, school/teachers, etc). In aggregate, they come down to luck.
I'd disagree, mostly because I know a "Jon" who was actually interested in programming, and he's gone pretty far already (we graduated a month ago). Despite my 7-8 year head start, we're in pretty similar positions.
You can't say that the person who just goes to class is going to do as good of a job as the person who completes side projects, learns on their own, etc.