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A comment on The expected value of the game is positive regardless of Ballmer’s strategy. Parent comment

Re:The expected value of the game is positive regardless of ... by nopinsight on Friday September 06, 2024 @02:49AM (#41463558)
Kelly Criterion

Betting more than the Kelly fraction increases the risk of ruin, especially in the long run.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Note: Not saying that this is applicable in the original post's situation. It's relevant to the parent comment though, and very useful in many situations, such as investing.

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Re:The expected value of the game is positive regardless of ... by n4r9 on Friday September 06, 2024 @04:21AM (#41464092)
What if I wanted to maximise the bottom 5th or 10th percentile of wealth?
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Re:The expected value of the game is positive regardless of ... by energy123 on Friday September 06, 2024 @07:30AM (#41465136)
Fractional Kelly?
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Re:The expected value of the game is positive regardless of ... by nighthawk454 on Friday September 06, 2024 @02:51AM (#41463567)
Yes, precisely. Although that's more about bet sizing for optimal return in the long run, not quite about binary choice of whether or not to play. But conceptually bang on, I had it in mind
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