Re:Athletes/musicians pursue fundamentals more rigorously th...
by joe_the_user on Sunday September 01, 2024 @08:53PM
(#41421610)
No, your math is cockeyed and the parent is much closer.
"Roughly speaking, there were 1,083,308 high school football players competing, and eventually 251 made it to pro. After simple calculation, we can get that the percentage of student-athletes going pro is approximately 0.023%."
https://u.osu.edu/groupbetaengr2367/junran-add-things-here-f...
Re:Athletes/musicians pursue fundamentals more rigorously th...
by Retric on Sunday September 01, 2024 @10:22PM
(#41422102)
High school lasts 4 years. Some people play for all 4 years but if the average is 2 years you’re looking at 0.5 million people playing for the first time each year.
Most players aren’t drafted. The average NFL career lasts 3.3 years. 2400 / 3.3 = 727 new players per year.
500,000 / 727 would be 1 in 687 or 0.15%.
Re:Athletes/musicians pursue fundamentals more rigorously th...
by hooloovoo_zoo on Sunday September 01, 2024 @10:02PM
(#41422003)
That 1M is a 4 year rate and the 250 is a 1 year rate. Additionally you don’t have to be drafted to play in the NFL. So it’s about 5x that.
There’s ~165 million males in the US, but many ex professional football players still alive and some kids who will eventually become football players. I doubt 10% of boys try out for high school or college football, but let’s say 10% make even some vague attempt.
Many people play professionally for a very short period, but arbitrarily suppose 1/7th of men are in the age range to play professionally. 165,000,000 / 2400 / 7 / 10 … So something like 1 out of 1,000 guys who make even a vague attempt end up in the NFL.
More realistically I doubt even 1% of boys ever approached football with serious intentions. Still horrible odds, except there’s a lot more athletic scholarships than openings in the NFL.