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Re:What Does Nevada's $35B Fund Manager Do All Day? Nothing by Galanwe on Monday July 15, 2024 @02:35AM (#40965713)
> explaining that stock prices are

To be pedantic, stock returns, not prices.

As for the quotes, I encourage you to strongly think about the meaning of the work of Sharpe, Black & Scholes and Markowitz applied to non normal distributions (both Nobel prizes, we understand each other).

In particular, try to articulate the relevancy of sharpe ratios between two non normally distributed portfolios.

Re:What Does Nevada's $35B Fund Manager Do All Day? Nothing by g15jv2dp on Monday July 15, 2024 @04:33AM (#40966159)
> To be pedantic, stock returns, not prices.

If one is a random variable, so is the other. It's a simple change of variables. What's your point?

> As for the quotes, I encourage you to strongly think about the meaning of the work of Sharpe, Black & Scholes and Markowitz applied to non normal distributions (both Nobel prizes, we understand each other).

Could you quote the part where they say that actual, real-world stock prices (or returns, whatever) are random?

Re:What Does Nevada's $35B Fund Manager Do All Day? Nothing by Galanwe on Monday July 15, 2024 @06:08AM (#40966536)
> If one is a random variable, so is the other. It's a simple change of variables. What's your point?

Not sure I follow your reasoning. Prices are positive only, and non stationary. That is very much not the same for returns. Usually prices are log normal, leading to normal (log) returns.

> Could you quote the part where they say that actual, real-world stock prices (or returns, whatever) are random?

It is not said, but rather implied. Take the Sharpe ratio for instance, it is a measure that:

1) is used to compare different assets / portfolio returns

2) rely on the 2nd moment of the returns.

The standard deviation is less relevant the further away from the normal distribution you go, so since this is a comparison metric, it can only be reasonably applied to compare normally distributed returns.

If you believe the returns are not generally normal, then you reject the use of the Sharpe ratio as a relevant measure of comparison.

I don't have a B&S reference at hand, and I did not read it since 15 years, but I'm pretty sure it assumes lognormals prices as well.

Re:What Does Nevada's $35B Fund Manager Do All Day? Nothing by g15jv2dp on Monday July 15, 2024 @08:19AM (#40967172)
> Not sure I follow your reasoning. Prices are positive only, and non stationary. That is very much not the same for returns. Usually prices are log normal, leading to normal (log) returns.

Perhaps we should take it back to the beginning. What do you believe "random variable" means...?

> It is not said, but rather implied.

I see.

Re:What Does Nevada's $35B Fund Manager Do All Day? Nothing by TacticalCoder on Monday July 15, 2024 @05:44AM (#40966438)
Something however has to be said about winning a Nobel prize then using your model to lose billions and send your company into bankruptcy.

The market is incredibly efficient at pricing many things incorrectly and Markowtiz then BSM was no exception.