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Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by adrian_b on Monday July 15, 2024 @01:06AM (#40965403)
If we add an arbitrary amount of dark matter everywhere, to match the observed motions of the celestial bodies, that adds an infinity of parameters, and not even a enumerable one.

This obviously can match almost anything and it has extremely low predictive power (many future observations may differ from predictions, which can be accounted by some dark matter whose distribution was previously unknown), so it is a much worse explanation than a modified theory of gravity that would have only a finite number of additional parameters.

Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by adgjlsfhk1 on Monday July 15, 2024 @02:31AM (#40965696)
the reason this isn't true is that by the hypothesis of dark matter, it follows gravity but not electromagnetism. as such it only fits distributions recoverable from evolving gravity. e.g. if we require a certain distribution today, it fixes the distribution at all other points in time, and we can use light speed delay to look into the past to verify whether the distributions have evolved according to gravity.
Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by Retric on Monday July 15, 2024 @08:51AM (#40967415)
All observations of individual galaxies occur at a specific point in time. We can’t use light speed delay to see the evolution of individual galaxies only completely different galaxies at some other point in time. As such each galaxy gets its own value for the amount of dark matter.

At minimum this is a ~200 billion parameter model, and more if you’re looking at smaller structures.

Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by andrewflnr on Tuesday July 16, 2024 @12:20AM (#40973633)
That's equally true of the distribution of baryonic matter. We have to assess each galaxy individually to figure out what it's made of? What a crime against science. Never mind that they're still all made of a small handful of types of parts, which can nevertheless combine to form lots of possible histories and shapes for individual objects. Just like literally everything else in the observable universe. Seriously, what part of this argument is different for computing the amount of visible mass in each galaxy?
Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by Retric on Tuesday July 16, 2024 @01:37AM (#40973894)
The availability to detect visible light from stars or detect that light being blocked by baryonic matter.

With dark matter it’s two steps removed where we’re inferring the behavior of baryonic matter and then inferring the amount of baryonic matter we aren’t observing and then calculating the existence of dark matter to get that behavior after accounting for undetected baryonic matter.

Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by andrewflnr on Tuesday July 16, 2024 @01:48AM (#40973921)
Yeah, that's a pain, but calculating mass from photons is still pretty indirect. More importantly, and independently of "directness", no one pretends that galaxies having different masses introduces two billion parameters into our models of cosmology. Because that's not what a model of cosmology is.
Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by Retric on Tuesday July 16, 2024 @12:42PM (#40978114)
Calculating the percentage of the universe’s observable mass is dark matter adds 200+ billion parameters because the mass fraction of each galaxy varies.

So there’s no simple way to calculate it from say looking at the Milky Way alone and extrapolating from the baryonic mass of the rest of the universe. Trying to approximate things from a representative sample is its own problem.

Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by andrewflnr on Tuesday July 16, 2024 @01:24PM (#40978445)
You're still confusing a physics model with a map of the universe. That said, it's sure a heck of a coincidence that the number they get from adding up estimated dark matter in galaxies lines up with the number they get from other cosmological measurements, isn't it? Almost like galaxy rotation curves aren't the only evidence for dark matter and haven't been for a long time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter#Observational_evid...
Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by Retric on Tuesday July 16, 2024 @02:23PM (#40978959)
Gravitational lensing, velocity dispersions, etc circles back to the total mass of galaxies. So it shows up on many of the ways we calculate the total mass fraction not just rotation anomalies.
Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by andrewflnr on Tuesday July 16, 2024 @06:44PM (#40981013)
Many of the ways? I guess that's it then, there's no reason to look at the whole picture, and especially no point in reading all the way to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter#Cosmic_microwave_b...
Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by Retric on Wednesday July 17, 2024 @12:53AM (#40982671)
Your being redundant, Many in this instance obviously implied not every.
Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by andrewflnr on Wednesday July 17, 2024 @01:03AM (#40982731)
Then, in what way is it relevant to my claims here? Namely,

1. Dark matter does not meaningfully introduce billions more parameters into cosmological models than they already have, and

2. Individual galaxies' dark matter fractions are not essential to (not proving, but) strongly suggesting dark matter exists.

Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by Retric on Wednesday July 17, 2024 @06:29PM (#40990947)
Something being consistent with a model is different than something being sufficient evidence on its own to support a model.

If the observed dark matter fractions of all known galaxies were 0% but the CMB was unchanged we wouldn’t assume dark matter exists. Thus your #2 is false. There’s infinite models consistent with any observation so finding something after a model was created for other reasons is useful as validation, but the chain of logic is still dependent on the prior observations not the model.

In a meaningfully different cosmos different observations would have happened and different models would exist. Trying to pick out specific experiments as sufficient on their own glosses over that particular limitation.

Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by andrewflnr on Wednesday July 17, 2024 @11:01PM (#40992121)
> If the observed dark matter fractions of all known galaxies were 0% but the CMB was unchanged we wouldn’t assume dark matter exists.

No, astrophysicists would eventually figure out something was up when they couldn't replicate the actual spectrum with dark-matter-free simulations. Why would you assume otherwise? Unless you want to dig into the assumptions of the scenario, in which case you're probably proposing a self-inconsistent universe so of course you can draw whatever conclusions you want from it.

> There’s infinite models consistent with any observation...

You can't actually believe this and still believe in science. If observations don't constrain models, then there is no point in observing. And in the long run, there's asymptotically no difference between "prior observations" and later observations. They're just observations that all go into the same model-constraining mill. Scientists are not fools, and are capable of realizing when an initial observation put them on a wrong trail.

You're still barely touching the real point. This all just sounds like rationalizations to avoid the fact that dark matter, for now at least, and for all that it genuinely sucks, is the Occam's razor explanation for the full suite of observations. Why is this so hard to accept?

Re:Fitting an Elephant with Four Non-Zero Parameters by smallnamespace on Monday July 15, 2024 @01:19AM (#40965463)
> to match the observed motions of the celestial bodies

The point is that even with current observational data there's no reasonable distribution of dark matter that correctly explains all evidence that we have.

Your intuition that "if I have an infinite number of degrees of freedom anything at all can be fit" is leading you astray here.