Re:A.I. Has Become a Technology of Faith
by shagmin on Friday July 12, 2024 @04:03PM
(#40948895)
I don't know where I first heard this but I believe it - people often overestimate the short term impact and underestimate the long term impact.
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| on HN ]
I know Morgan Housel has written about this a decent amount, here's one article that jumped to mind: https://collabfund.com/blog/compounding-optimism/
"Technological progress is easy to underestimate because it’s so counterintuitive to see how, for example, the philosophies of a guy who invented Polaroid film would go on to inspire the iPhone. Or how an 18th-century physicist would write a notebook that would set the foundations for a modern electrical system"
From more googling, it looks like this is called "Amara's Law": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara