interesting but not in the way you intend. once people watch a "sure thing" like aff flounder from its first trading day, it will indeed be a bullet-proof confirmation that this is a nuclear-winter economy...not like you need aff to confirm that. look at the previous big "sure thing" ipo, private equity group blackstone:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BX&t=2y&l=on&z=m...