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Re:Surprising Phosphate Finding in NASA's Osiris-Rex Asteroi... by pfdietz on Monday July 01, 2024 @11:32AM (#40846787)
No, that's wrong. You're ignoring that if it didn't happen, we wouldn't be here to see the result. Observer selection bias. The less common OoL is, the more biased our observation is.
Re:Surprising Phosphate Finding in NASA's Osiris-Rex Asteroi... by gradus_ad on Monday July 01, 2024 @11:50AM (#40846968)
Observer selection bias is independent of the earth vs non earth body question, it's an issue regardless.
Re:Surprising Phosphate Finding in NASA's Osiris-Rex Asteroi... by pfdietz on Monday July 01, 2024 @11:52AM (#40846984)
Yes, it also demolishes the naïve Copernican argument that because life is on Earth, it must be common.

The more subtle argument was that because life originated early on Earth, OoL must be a high probability event. But that argument implicitly assumes the probability of OoL is relatively constant with time, so it wouldn't be biased to occur early. OoL on small planetesimals is naturally biased to occur early, due to decay of those short lived radioisotopes. After the planetesimals freeze OoL there doesn't seem possible.

Re:Surprising Phosphate Finding in NASA's Osiris-Rex Asteroi... by pvaldes on Monday July 01, 2024 @04:24PM (#40850259)
Ok. What is an Ool?
Re:Surprising Phosphate Finding in NASA's Osiris-Rex Asteroi... by blagund on Monday July 01, 2024 @05:12PM (#40850751)
Watch the movie Caveman to find out! Ool anyone?
Re:Surprising Phosphate Finding in NASA's Osiris-Rex Asteroi... by erikig on Monday July 01, 2024 @05:23PM (#40850853)
In this context "Origins of life"
Re:Surprising Phosphate Finding in NASA's Osiris-Rex Asteroi... by pvaldes on Monday July 01, 2024 @06:52PM (#40851701)
I would suggest replacing 'Ool' by 'origin of life' or even better just 'life' then. Is much easier to understand and it just adds one character to the term
Re:Surprising Phosphate Finding in NASA's Osiris-Rex Asteroi... by superposeur on Monday July 01, 2024 @03:52PM (#40849877)
I would think this point would be obvious, but apparently not given the many frustrating discussions I’ve had with smart people on the topic. (Maybe there is a subtlety I’m not appreciating?) It’s a relief to see the good solid sense in all your comments on this thread.