Re:The Engineer Who Refused to Approve the Challenger Launch
by WalterBright on Friday June 21, 2024 @03:36PM
(#40752884)
If I recall correctly, the Saturn V was man rated after one launch. There were multiple failures on the moon missions that easily could have killed the astronauts.
The blastoff from the moon had never been tried before.
So the risk of death could be estimated as 2/135 (fatal flights / total flights) or as 13/817 (total fatalities / total crew). These are around 1.5%, must lower than a 50% chance of death.
This is not to underplay their bravery. This is to state that the level of bravery to face a 1.5% chance of death is extremely high.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_ac... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Space_Shuttle_missions