> There are three great powers, the US, China and Russia, and Israel has a um special relation with one of them, whereas none of its enemies do.

Things keep going the way they're going, and that special relationship has got twenty years left on the clock, max.

I don't think that American support should be taken for granted -- and it's not like Israel is cozying up to the Russians or Chinese. They may well end up like South Africa, with investment bans, arms embargoes, sanctions, no participation in international cultural events, etc. That's a very hard fate for a nation. The white South Africans of those days weren't able to hold out for very long.

I disagree. It is very obvious, as Levitz points out above, that Israel can just cozy up to the Chinese or the Russians if Uncle Sam washes its hands of it, China and Russia who would jump at the chance to gain a foothold in the Middle East, right next door to all those industrial juice springs. If I may.

But even if that were not the case 20 years is plenty of time to cleanse Gaza, and the West Bank with it, of every last Palestinian. I'd say at the current rate it would take hardly a couple years.

Edit: to be fair, I don't know how to compare SA and Israel. Maybe you have a point, but I don't think it's that simple to impose any kind of, essentially, sanctions to Israel as long as Uncle Sam's got its back. That special relation is a pretty big trump card there. And, btw, we're still at a Democratic president. Can you imagine the Republicans letting Israel suffer arms bans and trade embargoes?

> But even if that were not the case 20 years is plenty of time to cleanse Gaza, and the West Bank with it, of every last Palestinian. I'd say at the current rate it would take hardly a couple years.

Surely you realize that this is completely unhinged?

You are apparently an intelligent person. Doesn't it strike you that there should be a moral dimension to this? That there is a right way to act that is independent of realpolitik? Do you not realize that those people are, quite literally, under the care of Israel's government, and that to "cleanse" them would be a crime of world-historical proportions -- even if it might make life a little bit easier for people in Tel Aviv?

Besides, I don't think you understand what the reaction would be. Also, I think you overstate China's willingness, and Russia's capacity, to meaningfully support Israel should the US wash its hands of the region.

>> Doesn't it strike you that there should be a moral dimension to this?

I'm not endorsing the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians if that's what you mean. At the same time, you can say that Israel has lost peoples' hearts, that it goes against international law, that it's unhinged etc etc but none of those things will stop the people in power in Israel, who btw are textbook fascists who spit "peace" like a dirty word, from doing whatever they like.

Historically speaking, the Holocaust did not end until the Allies invaded Germany (and even then, it continued until the last moment) and the massacre of Palestinians will not stop until a large international force invades Israel. This will not happen, so the massacre will continue until the last Palestinian dies or leaves and Israel extends from the river to the sea, just like the settlers want it.

That's the facts on the ground. In Lord of the Rings, the bad guys lose. In the real world, they often get their cake and eat it. You can call it unhinged, or realpolitik, you can insult me and attack me, but you're just shooting the messenger.

I kinda agree with your position, but I don’t share your optimistic outlook regarding Israel fate if it loses US support. I think the Arab world is mostly at peace with Israel because of US support, and Russia/China are only thinly supporting other nations because US has such a large stronghold via Israel that make really little sense economically. If Israel loses US support, this calculation changes wildly, and I’m kinda skeptic that Israel could pivot that quickly to other patron, the chaos on the power struggle between factions would create enough delay.

My impression yet is that unless something radically changes, I don’t think Israel would lose US, the power vacuum in the region would be filled by somebody else, something US is unlikely to allow. Despite the show, I don’t believe Biden/Netanyahu’s fallout; it’s simply the only way Biden can do at least the tiny amount of damage control that allows him to keep the most of Jewish/leftist voting blocks.

You're probably right that there would be a power struggle etc, if Israel simply unceremoniously dumped the US as a patron. I just think they would sound out the other great powers beforehand (at the risk of intelligence leaking that they are doing so, of course) so it would be a careful and calculated move, not a sudden jump. That's what I'd do if I was in their shoes, anyway.

The other thing to keep in mind is that Israel is a nuclear power and there are no others in the region (for now), so that, too, gives them some extra time and leverage.

I totally agree that all this is just hypothetical and I, too, am not convinced that Biden is going to take serious action on Netanyahu. I would think that he's royally pissed off at him, privately, though. Bibi has caused Biden no end of trouble and I think it's clear that if Biden lost the elections, Bibi would celebrate.

They could cleanse Gaza in a couple of days, just by carpet bombing it. But Israel's national goal is not genocide unlike Palestinian's (which they showed they are perfectly capable of doing on October 7th)

That's hard to square with the reality on the ground: tens of thousand killed, millions displaced, half of all buildings damaged and the Palestinians can do nothing to stop it, but they're "perfectly capable" of genocide?

Israel has a fully mechanised army, tanks, F16s, drones, rockets, bombs, nukes, while Hamas has ... their grandpas' hand-me down AK-47s? What are they gonna do to genocide the Israelis? Give them the evil eye?

US support, extraordinarily stalwart as it is, has shown its first cracks. Western allies are considerably less religiously motivated, or defense-industrial-linkage motivated, and can’t be counted on in the same way. Recent ICC news can be read as an indicator of prevailing winds.

The US is not above dropping allies when politically convenient, and as Israel burns its public image (or seeks geopolitical independence), both parties stateside can entertain anti-Zionism.

Watch what was previously far-left/right become normalized as legitimate considerations regarding US support of Israel. That Iran would entertain its recent long-range strike should tell of regional estimations of how likely the US would be to intervene, and then extrapolate from there.

I don't completely disagree. It's clear that the US does not want war in the Middle East: it's bad for business and I think that the US too has had its fill of fighting. I'm also kind of getting the vibe that the US administration is not at all happy with the Israeli government's actions.

But that doesn't change the geopolicical situation: Israel is an important ally of the US in the Middle East and the US is an important ally of NATO, so whatever Israel does, the US will stand behind, and Nato will stand behind the US.

In any case, if the US wanted to stop the massacre of Palestinians in Gaza they would have done it months ago. I don't think they really care, and if the Republicans come into power, with all the looney tune characters from the Christian Zionist right in their ranks, I don't think there's going to be more care.

But, hey, we'll see what happens. It would be great if public sentiment and opinion counted for something in modern liberal democracies, but we have the recent enough example of the war on Iraq and the gigantic demonstrations against it in the UK, and how they didn't change one thing in the decisions of a liberal British PM.