Suppose it actually required twenty, or 200. In that case, would the relevant organisation publish the truth or rather lie and say "two"? I think lying makes a lot of sense. Telling the truth would be like saying "go ahead and kill the most accessible of these 20/200 people".

So I don't think the "2" is very likely to be true.

It could be 200 out of 20k, or something like that. Though yes, you're right, lying makes sense.

It takes more than two. Two is enough to launch, but other silos have override authority. So if two people went renegade they could still be shut down.