Sure but on average Americans move once every ~7 years on average. A 5% vacancy rate would be ~4.2 months between owners/tenants which seems unnecessarily high. Most apartment complexes I was at could turn them over in a few weeks if someone wanted to move in. So 5% would seemingly represent a significant economic inefficiency.

3% may represent local shortages as Santa Monica is more desired than West Adams etc. So increasing availability in undesirable places may not reduce rents in general.

The 5% is a sliding window. Some of those have just opened up, some of those are about to close at any given time. And it also represents all buildings, from super in demand complexes to slower moving listings, and is a rule of thumb that also aggregates seasonal differences.

In aggregate, 5-7% seems to be a sweet spot where landlords can find tenants in a reasonable amount of time and tenants are not scrambling to send out a dozen applications a week.

I moved around a lot and the majority of the time I signed a lease it was 1+ months out for an apartment that was still occupied. Having some availability right now is definitely beneficial as stuff can happen, but current housing stock just wasn’t what I was looking at basically ever.

Though I agree less desirable locations should definitely increase the average, as should purchases vs rentals etc. It’s just 3% is already including a lot of mandatory time from cleaning, painting walls, replacing carpets, etc. So prices could fall heavily at a sustained 4% long before you hit the 5-7% range.

Expensive housing markets are very unhealthy. A median home is considered affordable at 5x median income. Most of the expensive areas (San Francisco, New York, Seattle, Los Angeles, etc.) are at 10+x.

The other metric is median rent as a percentage of median income. Nationally it has hit 40% when the affordability mark is 33%.

Just because what you are experiencing has been a norm for a while does not make it good, or the goal.

People who rent tend to move more often than people who own a house. Landlords will often take an apartment out of the rental pool for a few months to remodel it.

That’s already included into the current ~3% numbers. So 5+% represents a much larger increase than just 67%.