“Wind and solar supplied 12% of global electricity in 2022” that’s the number I am tracking not how many panels they happened to use. Location and other details matter. Plopping down Solar in the UK, Germany, or southeastern Australia is a poor investment. So no I don’t give a fuck about hypothetical GW in dumb locations, it’s also irrelevant to the point I was making.

> can move the needle on total CO2 emissions because the effect on grid production is much less linear then traditional thermal power plants.

Batteries + Solar means things are more linear not less.

Again just track renewables by kWh over the year not simply nameplate capacity if that’s what you want to know. It’s not some secret people actively tack and report it as useful information.

As to the rest of your points, market conditions exist before you install the power plant. Initially the question is wind or solar more useful needs to be addressed. Pick solar and many choices remain.

Install solar with 1 or even 2 axis tracking and you get more hours per day of generation from the same land and panels than fixed installation but higher cost per kWh. Install it X miles west and power comes on a little later each day. Add a battery and you can shift supply within the day. People don’t just plop down panels randomly there’s a huge amount of optimization up front to maximize long term gains.

Thermal on the other hand has fewer levers, shifting the power plants location doesn’t help match the demand curve and there’s no option for cheaper but less reliable output. The economics also completely kill the idea of having batteries to cover the after work spike in demand etc etc. Right now people are trying to decide if they want a power plant that’s only going to provide 45% of hypothetical capacity while still being forced to pay the full construction costs. Net result an absolutely massive increase in how much wind and solar generation is used each year.