US fought a war with China in Korea and they were evenly matched. Korean War is the best historical reference we have.

Back when China consisted primarily of illiterate peasants (only about 20% literacy in 1949) without a significant industrial base (it took China until 2000 to overtake Germany in terms of total GDP).

Logistics is under appreciated. And the logistics lessons from fighting real wars are mostly applicable in other wars even if they’re of a different nature.

I don’t think China has a chance until they’ve at least had a practice run with a real conflict somewhere.

Certainly the US has more logistics experience in actual wars, but it's unclear whether it would matter that much in a US-China war.

A US-China war would most likely be fought in the South China Sea. Most of China's supply train would be moving through China, whereas most of the US's supply train would be moving half way around the world through open ocean. It's not clear why the lack of Chinese experience fighting overseas wars or the US's experience moving materiel through uncontested ocean against non-peer adversaries would apply here.

Remember, the last time the US fought a war without uncontested sea routes and naval superiority was WWII.