Have they earned a return on it yet?

Seriously asking; I've purchased a GitHub CoPilot license subscription but I don't know what their sales numbers are doing on AI in general. It's to be seen if it can be made more cost-efficient to deliver to consumers.

Checking MSFT price, seems like the market thinks they made the right move and the shareholders are for sure seeing a return.

The market thinks Tesla is worth more than all other automakers combined, that GameStop is a reasonable investment, and laying off engineers is great!

Until it one day it doesn’t. It’s very fickle.

Because Tesla is. Unlike the traditional automakers that have no room of growth and in a perpetual stagnation, Tesla has potential being a partially automative and partially tech industry. They can even have their own mobile phones if they want to. Or robots and stuff.

What Mercedes, Porsche, Audi can do aside continue to produce the cars over and over again until they are overtaken by somebody else? Hell, both EU and USA need tariffs to compete with chinese automakers.

Not quite. Tesla has a high valuation mostly because traditional auto carries an enormous amount of debt on their balance sheets. I think Tesla is one economic downturn in a high interest rate environment from meeting the same fate. Once an auto company is loaded with debt, they get stuck in a low margin cycle where the little profit they make has to go into new debt for retooling and factories. Tesla is very much still coasting from zero interest rate free VC money times.

But the market is always right.

What % of stock movements do you attribute to OAI, vs the cash-generation behemoth that is Windows/Office/Azure?

Increased price of a company is indeed the expectation of future profits, but until those profits hit the balance sheet they are unrealized