https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/6/text-of-the-ceasefir...

I don’t think Netanyahu on his own is able to reject this deal and invade Rafah. Especially with protests in both Israel as well as the USA, and with USA having set a red line here.

No, I think it is wildly simplistic to blame this on him, and there is a deep understanding inside the entire Israeli leadership that the genocide continues, no matter the cost. The Israeli public may not agree with it, however from what I see in the protests, there is very little talk—if any—of the lives of Palestinians. So it doesn’t really seem that Palestinian lives matter as much as the hostages for the Israeli public at large.

If e.g. Benny Gantz were to become the Prime Minister, there is little evidence he would behave any differently, this is for example how he is reacting to Hamas’ accepting of the ceasefire deal:

> “Every decision will be brought before the war cabinet—there will be no political considerations”

> “The military action in Rafah is also an inseparable part of our continued efforts and commitment to return our hostages and change the security reality in the south.”

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/389518

There are not many—if any—political regimes plausible in Israel at the moment who do not take a very hawkish and a criminal approach in denying Palestinians their states. The political reality is that without an intifada, there will be no political avenue for Palestine to gain their freedom from oppression.

There are allegedly 4 remaining combat-ready Hamas battalions (Google the ISW's al-Qassam Brigades Order of Battle for more information than you've ever wanted on this topic), all in or around Rafah. The other 15 battalions have all been disabled. Israel is believed to have killed or captured a full 1/4 of all Hamas fighters, but that figure understates the damage they did to Hamas; for instance, it really seems like they've more or less killed Hamas's entire officer cadre. Hezbollah fought the IDF to a standstill a few years back. Hamas did not repeat the performance. The IDF won, decisively.

Netanyahu's ghoulish neo-Kahanist coalition says things about completely eradicating Hamas, and, yes, about collectively punishing Gazans (this whole thing about Hamas being the duly elected representatives of Gaza is one of their talking points). But they're incompetent and these aren't military goals. If you killed literally every Hamas fighter, they'd be in approximately the same place: within 10 years of rehabilitation as a combat force given the same 9-figure p.a. disbursals they get from the IRGC and Syria.

There's a persuasive argument that Netanyahu needs this conflict to stay hot in order to stay in office; his incentives are very like those of the US's ex-President: being in office prevents his prosecution and eventual imprisonment (not unprecedented in Israel). I don't put it past him. Nixon probably prolonged the Vietnam War for electoral reasons. People do awful things.

I'm just saying: there's no coherent security reason for them to continue active combat operations. I think the Al-Aqsa Flood Attack is somewhat like the 9/11 hijackers storming the cockpits; it worked once, but it's never going to work again.

But, of course, Sinwar is no better. I assume Haniya is telling him about the alfalfa they're going to plant for the rabbits, and how Sinwar will get to tend the rabbits. My advice to Hamas people, once this all settles out, would be not to get in a motor vehicle with either of the Sinwar brothers ever again. It's an achievement to piss off Hamas and Fatah, the IRGC, and the IDF simultaneously.

It doesn't matter whose talking point it is. Hamas was elected fair and square in proper democratic elections. They are the only legitimate authority in Gaza. Those are the facts on the ground and there is no world where it makes sense to ignore this.

I suspect you assume this somehow justifies the atrocities committed by Israel, along the lines of Isaac Herzog's comment about innocent civilians in Gaza [1] but that's just nuts. We're not going to ignore reality because a bunch of blood-crazed fascists are trying to twist it to their needs.

_____________

[1] https://www.itv.com/news/2023-10-13/israeli-president-says-g...

No, and don't write things like this here.

In my country the political landscape was very different 20 years ago.

Yes, what may not be clear is that those people are demonstrating for the return of the hostages, not the end of the massacre of the Palestinians. They couldn't care less about the Palestinians. As I point out in another comment there is widespread support among the Israeli public for the war and near zero concern about what it will do to Palestinian civilians, including children.

The Israeli public has embraced the Smotrich doctrine

https://www.972mag.com/smotrich-decisive-plan-israeli-public...

As trauma of October 7 massacres endures, Israeli support for Gaza war remains high

https://www.itv.com/news/2023-10-13/israeli-president-says-g...

How Israeli youth helped usher in the farthest right-wing government ever

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/2/23/23609584/israel...

First page of results on google and ddg:

Polls Show Broad Support in Israel for Gaza’s Destruction and Starvation

https://truthout.org/articles/polls-show-broad-support-in-is...

Netanyahu might be losing ground, but his politics still resonate with most Israelis

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/israel-gaza...

Enduring pain keeps public support for Gaza war strong in Israel

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/enduring-pain-keep...

What Israelis Think of the War With Hamas

https://time.com/6333781/israel-hamas-poll-palestine/

War on Gaza: Majority of Israelis support withholding aid to Gaza until captives returned

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/war-gaza-majority-israeli...

Now, I want to be clear, I’m not blaming the protestors (I know many here on HN are going to these protests, and all the power to you for that). And I’m certainly not going to accuse any individual protestor of not caring about Palestinians. But from my eyes, through the English language news, it certainly does not seem to be a priority, nor even a consideration, for the public at large in Israel, that Palestinians get justice and liberation from these years and years of political neglect and human rights violations.

If you compare this to the Iraq war protests in the USA, which I will not deny were more about bringing the troops home then about the lives of Iraqis, but the lives and conditions of Iraqis was always at least a part of the conversations. I’m not seeing this int the “Bring Them Home Now” protests in Israel. The hostages are not the main focus, but the only focus. Consideration for Palestinian lives is completely absent.

When I see protests which actually consider Palestinian lives, it is not these mass demonstrations like we see with the “Bring Them Home Now” protests, but rather, very few individual anti-Zionist activists, who seem to get pretty disproportionate treatment from the Israeli police.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war_prote...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/2/14/israels-wa...

https://youtu.be/Ie3InYIVXF8?si=E0bdNNTQ2vr3Ysfs

Apologies but I don't have time now to search it to find the place where he talks about Israelis' opinions, or to check that's the right one. I'll try to do it later today, if you're interested.

Bartov is one of the calmest and most sensible voices around these days. He seems completely incapable of accepting that his country is committing a genocide and has argued eruditely and logically against it, but I guess that's understandable. I listen to that guy every chance I get.

Daniel Levy’s interview at Democracy Now! this morning was also insightful[2]. Particularly the answer to Juan González’ question:

> JUAN GONZÁLEZ: And I wanted to ask you also about the protests, the continuing massive protests within Israel, even while the war continues. Your sense of the impact of these protests on the Israeli government?

> DANIEL LEVY: It’s a very important point, Juan. What I think we have seen is the intensity of those protests — and those protests tend to center around the prioritizing of getting the hostages out, saying, “Do the deal. Get the hostages out.” The intensity, especially those led by members of family of those being held, by family, friends, those have increased. The volume, the extent to which this is disruptive and is impossible for Netanyahu to stare down, I do not think we are anywhere near that moment.

> The internal pressure is such that the soft opposition, who will run against Netanyahu in the next election, led by this guy Gantz, former chief of staff, former defense minister, and Eisenkot, they are still in the government. They have still not unequivocally said that if Netanyahu turns down the deal, they will quit. Even if they quit, Netanyahu has a majority.

> But the pressure does not feel sufficient that Netanyahu’s politics needs him to accept a ceasefire. He still thinks he can wiggle out of this, which is where the question of the external pressure becomes a key factor, because it’s going to be that combination of internal and external. So I think the next question one would have to address is: Where does the external pressure stand?

So, in short, Daniel Levy does not believe these protests will do anything to change Israel’s policy, nor will any pressure from within Israel. He believes the only thing which will change this policy is external pressure, especially from the US. Meaning the student protests in the US are more relevant to the future of Palestine. The ball is not in Hamas’ courtyard, nor in Israel’s, it is—and has been this whole time—in the US’.

1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-NKhRVV2gU

2: https://www.democracynow.org/2024/5/7/daniel_levy_israel_raf...

It is simply false that "Israelis" don't care about the lives of Gazan civilians. There are Israelis that don't (they are disproportionately likely to be Israelis of Middle Eastern descent, for demographic reasons similar to the urban/rural political divisions in the US), just as there are Americans that don't care about Mexican lives and Palestinians who don't care about Jewish lives and Zaydi Yemenis who don't care about Sunni Yemeni lives. People are awful and wonderful and complicated all at the same time.

I just saw it now. All the power to these people, they are absolute heroes. Also power to the protestors in the Al-Jazeera clip I cited earlier in the Bring Them Home Now protest for talking about Palestine.

I think, however—and it seems I’m not the only one—that far more is needed. This is not a large demonstration, especially given the stakes and the seriousness of Israel’s crimes.

The anti-zionist movement in Israel certainly exists, and is doing an amazing job. When I was in university I followed the works of Anarchists against the wall very closely (I don’t know if they are active any more though). I was also a member of the Icelandic Red Cross which worked closely with Israeli organizations (don’t remember which ones) in aiding victims of settler violence on the West Bank. If I remember correctly these organizations were mostly giving legal aid and monitoring checkpoints in the hopes it would prevent violence. Some of my colleges actually went to the West Bank to work with them.

But this was 15 years ago, and thinks have only gotten worse since then. I’m not optimistic that the current movements will have any more effects on policy than those of the last decade and a half (but they absolutely should still try). Like Daniel Levy says above, the pressure needs to come from the outside.

These are also described as "rare", and tend to get broken up by authorities for "harming the feelings of the public" and whatnot. The vast majority are led by the Bring Them Home Now movement or are otherwise unequivocally focused on the return of the hostages.