How does China ban Facebook?

Rhetoric aside, it will be done through blocking commercial activity on US soil. The US government can seize tiktok.com for example.

There’s a lot of nuance to the answer, but the easy way to understand is:

They don’t host videos for fun, they host videos so you will watch ads. If they can’t sell ads for US$ then they won’t host videos either.

I believe this will legally mandate that Google and Apple remove the app from their app stores. It will still be available online.

Who do you think controls VPN? Do you still trust VPNs?

Unclear what your conspiracy is, it is a fact you can get around a government ban with a VPN. It just doesn't solve the problem at hand.

You realize they can also ban VPN IPs right?

My point is they don't even need to do that. If people cant get paid there is no ecosystem of content. Plus why would TikTok themselves care about this after they leave the American market.

The value proposition for TikTok for the vast majority of existing users is that it provides a zero-friction source of Content. Maybe 5% of them have even heard the term "sideload" and most of those wouldn't bother. A VPN will not matter because TikTok is not being blocked at the network level.

Creators can't get paid, advertisers can't advertise, the whole ecosystem dies. Sure you can still access the app with a VPN but that's just 4chan with extra steps.