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Re:To make a fortune, target bored young men who want to mak... by ToValueFunfetti on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @10:23AM (#40052305)
If a ticket costs $1 and you have a 1 in 10 million chance of a win, any payout larger than $10 million (after taxes) gives a positive expected return. Unwise to invest your life savings on a longshot, but still worth buying a few tickets if the expected return exceeds the market rate. I believe the Kelly criterion gets you to an exact percentage of your wealth to spend on tickets.
Re:To make a fortune, target bored young men who want to mak... by chii on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @10:28AM (#40052385)
> any payout larger than $10 million (after taxes) gives a positive expected return.

and conditional on you being the sole winner too (unless the lottery is guaranteed to only have one winner).

Re:To make a fortune, target bored young men who want to mak... by scarmig on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @11:17AM (#40053080)
Taxes, too: the government will be taking over a third of your winnings for a big payout.
Re:To make a fortune, target bored young men who want to mak... by ac2u on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:52PM (#40056405)
depends on the country
Re:To make a fortune, target bored young men who want to mak... by SJC_Hacker on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @11:12AM (#40053008)
Discounting the possibility of multiple winners splitting the jackpot, and not taking into account taxes on the earnings.
Re:To make a fortune, target bored young men who want to mak... by SketchySeaBeast on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @04:24PM (#40056717)
Sure, if you take the whole population, then each ticket will, on average, be worth more than $1. That doesn't change the odds of my making money back on this. There's going to be a handful of people who massively skew the statistics, but it doesn't mean that for the vast majority of players the odds get any better or that their ticket becomes more winning. Expected return doesn't matter on a ticket by ticket basis when the odds and winnings are so skewed, it creates an illusion of worthiness that doesn't exist for the single player.