> This would also mean that the housing rush of 2021 would have been crushed by rate increases in 2022/23. In fact there probably wouldn't have been much of a rush at all.

Interestingly, you described almost exactly how mortgages work in Canada: you pay more for a fixed rate, and even then, you can only get a fixed rate for a term of up to 10 years. And the average term is more like 5 years. People's mortgages have been going up now that interest rates are up. This was not impossible to predict.

And that certainly didn't stop the housing rush of the last 15 years.