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Re:Dali owner file petition to cap liability in Baltimore br... by dmurray on Wednesday April 03, 2024 @07:56AM (#39916272)
The odds did tighten up after Leicester won the Premier League though. You couldn't get 5000-1 on say Watford winning in 2016-17, the best odds IIRC were more like 500-1.

It seemed like bookies really did adjust their expectations or their risk appetite for long-tail events in this market. And they were probably correct to do so.

Re:Dali owner file petition to cap liability in Baltimore br... by flakeoil on Wednesday April 03, 2024 @08:06AM (#39916361)
Are those two events/teams comparable so that one could expect the same type of odds?

I'm not much into betting, but will not the odds change also based on how people are betting. So if many people started to bet on the unexpected result, due to for example that the unexpected Leicester team won last time, wouldn't odds tighten up automatically?

Re:Dali owner file petition to cap liability in Baltimore br... by dmurray on Wednesday April 03, 2024 @08:41AM (#39916688)
> Are those two events/teams comparable so that one could expect the same type of odds?

Yes IMO. It might be more rigorous to say: before 2016 there were always a handful of teams priced at 5000-1, after 2016 there were not. The league didn't objectively get more competitive.

> So if many people started to bet on the unexpected result, due to for example that the unexpected Leicester team won last time, wouldn't odds tighten up automatically

Definitely possible, and would explain the effect regardless of whether the punters were smart money Nicholas Taleb types who spotted that black swans were systematically underpriced, or gamblers dreaming of another Leicester payday.

Re:Dali owner file petition to cap liability in Baltimore br... by octodog on Wednesday April 03, 2024 @08:08AM (#39916374)
Or, cynically, their original odds were right but they have taken the opportunity to reduce payouts because punters now consider that event more likely and thus would accept less.
Re:Dali owner file petition to cap liability in Baltimore br... by TheCoelacanth on Wednesday April 03, 2024 @03:48PM (#39922171)
It's less of an indication of bookies' predictions and more of an indicator of bettors' predictions.

A bookie isn't trying to gamble on the outcome; they're trying to get the bets to all balance out so that no matter what the outcome they take in enough money from the losers to pay the winners with some profit leftover.

As more people bet on a specific outcome, they will lower the odds to make sure that the pool of money taken in is still big enough to pay out if that outcome happens.