Look, I am not going to make a detailed geopolitical analysis here, but there are lots of sites and institutes who do, you can check them out. The difference with weather forcast is only, that human analysis of geopolitical events often hope to influence the outcome. But the weather will come whether we think it will be sun or rain.

And the prediction about the war in Ukraine would not be "it'll be like today". The current prediction is, that russia will continue to slowly make ground and move the front lines to the west. There are actually predictions how much and where exactly. I think that gets also falsified in some institutes, but is probably classified.