You forgot one: Java is the new COBOL.

Now, more seriously, such cycles do exist and we can observe them easily. History repeats imperfectly in subtly different ways. If Apple is to be the new Microsoft, it won't be exactly like it just as Microsoft is not exactly the new IBM - both have learned from their predecessors. Will they make mistakes that doom themselves? Eventually yes, but they won't be the same mistakes that doomed their predecessors.