Hmm - I can't find anything except anecdata atm (0) based on Stack Overflow Developer Survey 2023, but it appears that the numbers drop off pretty sharply starting at the 10-14 year mark. Wish I could find the original article I saw years ago.

Also, This(1) has to be the first time I can remember BLS predicting negative growth in the programmer job market! I always remember it being listed with decent job growth...

0) https://codegym.cc/groups/posts/560-50-years-and-counting-ho...

1) https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...

I think they've been negative on “programmers” for a while, but you’ve got to be careful with the BLS on software-related professions, because “programmers” are a different category than, for instance, “software developers” https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/... who have a much rosier outlook.

If you read the descriptions, “programmers” are pretty limited (“They turn the designs created by software developers and engineers into instructions that a computer can follow.”)

Oh nice! that must be it then.. I don't remember seeing it negative before - thanks!

the stack overflow survey is a bit depressing though - we seem to lose everyone early... Seems like only 30% of people make it past 15 years. Which surprises me, as my circle of programming friends all have like 20+ years. Maybe thats why we keep re-inventing stuff :-/

I didn't think it meant that... this was probably a 5-10 year old stat...lemme see if I can find it.

There could be timing and similar context effects there, too; bet that looked different just before vs. 5-6 years after the dotcom crash, for instance. (Neither of those seems to be the time you are discussing, just pointing to that as an example.)

Oh - I replied above with some anecdata from stack overflow, also surprised that BLS is predicting negative job growth for programmers (first time in my life, I think)