News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on A ragtag band of internet friends became the best at forecasting world events. Parent comment

Re:A ragtag band of internet friends became the best at fore... by Asraelite on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @11:10AM (#39692201)
There are comments similar to this all throughout the thread. It reminds me of the movie Moneyball. Even when the numbers are clear to see, people will still much rather follow their intuition. The Oakland Athletics' insistence on sticking to the numbers anyway is what led to their enormous success, and now the same strategy is copied by sports teams around the world.

It can be hard to convince people with math alone.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:A ragtag band of internet friends became the best at fore... by lz400 on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @09:29PM (#39699694)
I'm onboard with trusting data driven and numbers approach. This one just seems like a bad one if it doesn't account for how obvious actions would alter its results. But as some other comment said, maybe this base rate is not the whole story and it's just one ingredient in the total risk calculation. That makes more sense.
[ Parent | on HN ]