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A comment on A ragtag band of internet friends became the best at forecasting world events. Parent comment

Re:A ragtag band of internet friends became the best at fore... by exe34 on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @09:11AM (#39690923)
> the probability distribution of emissions

We know that every species consumes all available resources until an external force, whether it's predators or environmental collapse checks its growth. Humans are no different - any time a poor person uses a paper straw, a rich one will fly their private jet. Muh backyard arguments on nuclear means we will continue to burn coal and gas as fast as possible, even while renewables help drive up more demand.

So I think it's safe to assume that emissions will continue growing.

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Re:A ragtag band of internet friends became the best at fore... by hackerlight on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @09:50AM (#39691201)
I'm hoping for a rigorous analysis. For example, X := "arrival time of fusion with a cost lower than natural gas in $ per kWh" is a random variable with a distribution. Our assumptions about the distribution of X will impact our estimated distribution of emissions, and hence impact our estimated distribution of f(emissions). There's lots of these questions that contribute, both technological and behavioral in nature.
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