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A comment on A ragtag band of internet friends became the best at forecasting world events. Parent comment

Re:A ragtag band of internet friends became the best at fore... by bee_rider on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @02:39AM (#39688649)
Isn’t nuclear war specifically a bad thing to try and make predictions about? The cheat is to always predict no.

It seems unlikely that the U.K. is getting nuked alone, they have a bunch of nuclear armed allies. Even if you don’t believe in quantum immortality, if you are predicting ‘yes,’ you only get to collect your points in the ‘yes, and I survive, and so does the betting market’ case.

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Re:A ragtag band of internet friends became the best at fore... by NunoSempere on Wednesday March 13, 2024 @12:07PM (#39693263)
Cute zeroth order approximation, but you can also shift consumption forward if you think a nuclear war is near, or devote more resources to preventing it if you think the probability is higher.
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