It cannot be simulated because many aspects of military capability are a secret by design and as a matter of functional necessity. The available information is supposed to be inaccurate. Uncertainty around capability and causality is a fundamental part of the deterrent and battlefield shaping effects during conflict.
How do you prove the fidelity of the simulation with respect to actual military capabilities? How do you prevent a party from claiming capability in the simulation that they do not actually possess? Countries like Russia constantly churn out supposed super-weapons that are routinely found out in real combat.
If war became all about simulation engineering rather than actual capability, a country is going to recognize the arbitrage opportunity and take advantage of it in the physical world.
It is a bit like conflating e-sports with the real thing. One is not a substitute for the other because the constraints and incentives are fundamentally different, optimizing for very different things in execution.
How do you prove the fidelity of the simulation with respect to actual military capabilities? How do you prevent a party from claiming capability in the simulation that they do not actually possess? Countries like Russia constantly churn out supposed super-weapons that are routinely found out in real combat.
If war became all about simulation engineering rather than actual capability, a country is going to recognize the arbitrage opportunity and take advantage of it in the physical world.
It is a bit like conflating e-sports with the real thing. One is not a substitute for the other because the constraints and incentives are fundamentally different, optimizing for very different things in execution.