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A comment on The Trillion Dollar Equation [video]. Parent comment
Actual volatility (not implied!) is much easier to predict than price.
It’s also much more difficult to trade than price changes. So your intuition about this is correct though.
It is not super difficult to predict tomorrows volatility sign (up/down compared to today) with +60% success. Even textbook GARCH models do well here.
If you could do that with the price, you’d quickly become filthy rich.
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Actual volatility (not implied!) is much easier to predict than price.
It’s also much more difficult to trade than price changes. So your intuition about this is correct though.
It is not super difficult to predict tomorrows volatility sign (up/down compared to today) with +60% success. Even textbook GARCH models do well here.
If you could do that with the price, you’d quickly become filthy rich.