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Re:When half a million Americans died and nobody noticed by ajross on Thursday May 10, 2012 @01:41PM (#3954816)
That's not right. Correlations with data this large can be proven quite conclusively even if the signal is low. There are a lot of deaths every year, so even fairly small relative signals are resolvable.

What's interesting here though is that this is not a small signal, precisely because it shows up against the background without any correlation work at all. FTA:

> "We find the largest rise in American mortality rates [in the last 15 years] occurred in 1999, the year Vioxx was introduced, while the largest drop occurred in 2004, the year it was withdrawn," says Unz.

Re:When half a million Americans died and nobody noticed by nkoren on Thursday May 10, 2012 @01:49PM (#3954854)
That statement, however, doesn't seem to correspond with the CDC's graph, which shows a much larger rise in death rates occurring in 1993.

(Source article for that graph: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db88.htm -- would that they distributed the actual datasets behind the graphs!)

Re:When half a million Americans died and nobody noticed by ajross on Thursday May 10, 2012 @02:04PM (#3954954)
1993 was 19 years ago. Though I'd be curious what that effect was too.
Re:When half a million Americans died and nobody noticed by DanBC on Thursday May 10, 2012 @02:21PM (#3955053)
Flu outbreak?

EDIT: URL removed. The link I included appear to be written by an idiot. Sorry.

> A CDC review of mortality patterns in 1993 states: “the decline in life expectancy likely reflects increases in death rates for chronic diseases during the two influenza outbreaks in 1993.” [Morbidity Mortality Weekly 45 (08), 161-64, March 1, 1996] Some increases in chronic disease (diabetes, heart disease, COPD) were “the result of the two influenza epidemics of 1993,” said the report. [Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Volume 44, No. 7(S), page 9, Feb. 29, 1996]

Re:When half a million Americans died and nobody noticed by nkoren on Friday May 11, 2012 @08:16AM (#3958820)
Crikey, that was 19 years ago already? No wonder I've got a stiff neck!

Apologies -- I'd misread the OP to say that it had been the largest jump in 15 years -- meaning the 15 years prior to 1999.