Last year I had to replace my HVAC. I was set on getting a heat pump, being a huge fan of efficiency. I was averaging a $1.05/therm delivered for gas, and about 17.5 cents/kwh for electricity delivered. A therm is about 29 kwh, so I pay the equivalent of $5.07/therm in electricity.

The best whole house air-source heat pumps had a SEER2 of 18.5, or a COP of just under 5.0. I need a COP of over 5 to just break even in terms of cost efficiency. So a heat pump would actually cost me more on an ongoing basis. And the price for a heat pump installation was $10k more than a furnace/AC.

I just couldn't do it. To pay more up front and then ongoing was just too much. If you showed me even a super long range projection of saving money, I would have been down for it, but it just was not there.

If I can get solar on my house it may make sense, I will cross that bridge in a few years as my roof is almost end of life, but that has its own headaches as I have limited space (brownstone, flat roof), and am in a historic district.

Next go around, as heat pump tech improves and hopefully gets cheaper, it will probably make sense, but for me right now, it just didn't work.